Super Bowl Coverage

Here's an article I wrote for the Alexandria Town Talk. It's about the defensive line coach, Bill Johnson, who is an alum of Northwestern State University:

Bill Johnson Turns Around Saints D-Line

Super Bowl

There's a number of excellent articles out there on the upcoming game. The New York Times has one on the Saints' remarkable ability to strip the ball and another on the politically outspoken Scott Fujita. Reuters reports that the EA Sports game Madden 2010 has the Saints winning. Also, I have a column in the Jackson Free Press's Super Bowl issue. The link is below:

The People's Victory

Conference Championships

AFC Championship: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Schadenfreude: pleasure felt from someone else's misfortune. The Colts gave the Jets a bid to the playoffs, and now the Jets stand in their way from grabbing another Super Bowl appearance. Would a Colts victory justify Caldwell's decision to pull his starters and give up an undefeated season in Week 16? No. Would a Colts loss confirm the fans' disgust with the decision? No. Might a loss precipitate a locker room insurrection similar to Bill Callahan's stint with the Raiders? Yes. The Colts win, though, 40-21.

NFC Championship: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

This is the collision course matchup that everyone saw from about Week 3. The Vikings have been more variable in production than any other team. They lost to Pittsburg, Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago. Those teams combined for one playoff appearance this year. The Saints have pulled off some great comebacks and have back a handful of key players from injuries last week. The presence of tight end Jeremy Shockey and the production of running back Reggie Bush are very important.

New Orleans has the technically perfect quarterback (Drew Brees), a great marketing campaign ("Who Dat nation"), and an explosive offense and defense. Minnesota can claim the world's worst Prince anthem, the oldest starting playoff quarterback, and Adrian the Great. I take the Vikings, 27-14.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

Here's my new column, on the Saints-Cowboys game:

What the Saints Can Learn

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (11/30/09)

Monday night, Tom Brady brought his explosive offense into the Superdome to play the unbeaten New Orleans Saints. While watching the game, I considered how both have evolved their strategic approaches in the last three years. New England has incorporated spread concepts into their offense, and, this season, the defense New Orleans has taken on the identity of new coordinator Gregg Williams. It leads me to reflect on how and when strategic adjustments should be made.

The Saints defense has been the team's most improved area this season. Even with both starting corners out, and free agents castaways at corner, they attacked the Pats shotgun-spread. Williams is not going to wait for Mike McKenzie, Chris McAlister, and rookie Malcolm Jenkins to catch up. He's committed absolutely to his scheme. Remember that the Pats, too, have remained loyal to their scheme, since switching to it in 2007. That zealous committment seemed to catch up to them in the 2008 Super Bowl. Will we see the same for Williams's defense?

Offensively, the Saints relied on max-protect schemes (sometimes only sending two receivers into routes). With left tackle Jammal Brown out, the adjustment seemed warranted. On the other side, there's the Patriots defense. In the offseason, the Patriots adapted their defensive schemes to new personnel, chuffing aside Belicheck's effective 3-deep and 4-deep zone coverage schemes. This season, they have relied on man coverage more often and, against New Orleans, it cost them. Throughout the game, receivers broke free, sometimes against zone and sometimes against man. Commentators have blamed the youth and inexperience of the Pats backfield, but that's never stopped them before (see the long list of rookie contributors in the Pats' run to three titles). Have the off-season schematic adjustments created some uncertainty in that once reliable backfield?

NFL Progress Reports

One of my favorite aspects of the professional games is roster management. Perhaps because I have played Madden in Franchise mode for too long, I have followed the movement and development of talent in the NFL closely for the better half of the last decade, sometimes more closely than scores and victories. With the salary cap in place, the annual draft carries the most weight for a team’s success (especially over the long term).

That bloggers jump to premature conclusions is a fair criticism, and I am not exception. How is the 2009 Draft shaping up in retrospect? How does a good draft or a bad draft shape a team’s immediate success? By taking a look at the drafts of the two of the most surprising and two of the most disappointing teams, maybe we can discern a few trends.

Minnesota Vikings (6-0)

Key picks: WR Percy Harvin (20 catches, 243 receiving yards), OT Phil Loadholt (6 starts)

The biggest surprise of this young season for me is the emergence of rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin. I was skeptical of his NFL potential because of questions regarding his college system, attitude, and health, but he has emerged as a young versatile talent for the Vikings to pair with RB Adrian Peterson for years. (I was very big on WR Hakeem Nicks, who has turned out to be just as good, and maybe more explosive, for the New York Giants). As big an acquisition as QB Brett Favre has been, Phil Loadholt has surprisingly contributed great production for one of the league’s best offensive lines. Both players were featured in their dramatic comeback victory against San Francisco in the third week of the season.

New Orleans Saints (5-0)

Key picks: CB Malcolm Jenkins (1 recovered fumble), P Thomas Morstead (43.9 average)

Two-fourths of the Saints’ 2009 draft was lost to injury in training camp. The early success of the Saints is driven by veterans (CB Jabari Greer and S Darren Sharper), so the concern is whether they can sustain their high level of play throughout the postseason and into future seasons. If they can’t, that means their high cap number and the less experienced draft picks could limit the team’s flexibility in the future.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)

Key picks: QB Josh Freeman (0 starts), Roy Miller (14 tackles, 1 sack)

If Jon Gruden’s history was any indication, similar results would have been in store for the Bucs whether Raheem Morris was the head coach or not. Still, the Bucs’ investment into WRs Michael Clayton (11 catches, 154 yards) and Antonio Byrant (14 catches, 178 yards) looks more puzzling every game that rookie seventh-round pick Sammie Stroughter basically matches their performance (13 catches, 151 yards). The Bucs look like they hit on multiple picks but the trade of disappointing DE Gaines Adams and the questionable maturity of QB Josh Freeman make me wonder how bright the future really is.

Tennessee Titans (0-6)

Key picks: WR Kenny Britt (289 receiving yards), DT Sen’Derrick Marks (1 tackle)

The puzzler for me is why Head Coach Jeff Fisher refuses to put quarterback Vince Young on the field. Nevertheless, when I looked at the stats, I was surprised to see that the Titans have actually been committed to a youth movement this year. Players such as Jason McCourty and Jared Cook are getting valuable experience. Still, in the absense of Albert Haynesworth, they could use more push in the middle of the line from Marks or second-year players Jason Jones (3 sacks) and William Hayes (1.5 sacks).This year, the results are bad, but I think they are in line for another double-digit winning season next year.

Conclusion

Free agency has played a bigger factor so far. Other winning teams that are getting great minutes from rookies include the Cincinnati Bengals (OT Andre Smith) and the New York Jets (QB Mark Sanchez). I look forward to returning to this issue during the playoffs to see how our young stars are performing.

Game Preview: New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

The only match-up of undefeated teams this weekend features some intriguing plotlines. Drew Brees, who nearly broke the NFL record for yardage and may actually do it this year, will face a defense that ranks second in points allowed. The Jets head coach Rex Ryan features an aggressive, blitzing defense that has frustrated three quarterbacks with a combined twenty-eight years of NFL experience and five Super Bowl appearances. But it hasn’t faced a receiving corps as deep nor a release as quick as the one Brees brings with him into this game.

There are some parallels to 1985, when a tough Chicago defense swaggered into the Orange Bowl for a late regular-season game with Dan Marino’s Miami Dolphins. Rex Ryan’s father, the legendary defensive coordinator Bud Ryan had conceived the 46 defense (named after #46 Doug Plank) for a defense that boasted four Hall-of-Famers and would lead the team through a dominating Super Bowl run. Bud Ryan would be carried off the field along with head coach Mike Ditka.

On December 2, 1985, however, that Chicago team was bested, 38-24, by a third-year quarterback with a fast release. Marino had already broken the yardage record and won league MVP the previous year, his second in the league. The Bears defense, which featured linebackers like Mike Singletary that were ineffective in pass coverage, looked baffled and mediocre that night, but would rally the rest of the way to become perhaps the greatest unit in NFL history.

This parallel might be strained: Brees is not Marino; Rex Ryan’s Jets defense is more athletic; and neither team, as of yet, is guaranteed a long run through the playoffs. Looking back on this game in December, we might see two 7-7 teams or two 12-2 teams. All the same, this game will shape those fortunes more than any other in the first month. Will an improved Saints defense handle the rookie, Mark Sanchez? How will their two aggressive play-callers, Ryan and Saints head coach Sean Payton, attack each other?

I would like to look at the ways Ryan has frustrated the opposing quarterback first, and then examine some of the ways Payton and Brees will try to counteract that defense. In Tom Brady’s second regular-season game since his knee surgery and recovery, Ryan harassed Brady with basic arithmetic and outstanding athleticism. Early in the first quarter, before the snap, Ryan’s defense showed an eight-man front and Brady chose to keep seven blockers in with three receivers running vertical routes. When Ryan chooses to bring seven defenders, four to the offense’s right side, the offensive line fails to slide and pick up the extra blitzers. Brady throws a pass up to Randy Moss (who should probably win against the smaller Darrelle Revis) but the pass is intercepted. The Patriots offensive line usually relies on dual reads: most of their offensive line will read multiple defenders to see if they blitz. If both blitz, then the quarterback should take a shorter pass, rather than risk a sack. At the end of this play, one player (tight end Benjamin Watson) will have two players to block and another (guard Logan Mankins) no one to block.

In the second week of the season, Drew Brees faced a typically aggressive Eagles defense that blitzed about six defenders most of the time. Against the blitz, Brees made accurate downfield throws. On one key third down in the third quarter, needing eleven yards, Brees faced nine men in the middle of the field, with each receiver locked down by a cornerback with no safety help. Before the snap, he looks almost excited about the coverage. Brees takes a seven-step drop, and the line caves in, but he completes a 31 yard wheel route to the left sideline to Devery Henderson, just out of the reach of Sheldon Brown. Importantly, Henderson lined up almost fifteen yards from the sideline, giving the opportunity of “pulling away” to the left, from the defender.

Unlike Brady, who was recovering from surgery and looked skittish in the pocket, Brees will relish the opportunity to throw against single man coverage, even if he takes a few hits while standing in the pocket. However, unlike the Lions defense (week one) and the Bills defense (week three), the Jets will not allow him to slide in the pocket, reload, and throw on the run. Though they have made explosive plays in the first few weeks, the key plays in this game will be the five yard dump-offs that sustain drives.