Records, Records, Records

Records have a rare currency in the sports world. The mystique of the unprecedented, the “unbroken record,” surrounds any and all athletic competition. Seemingly, these records offer us a quantifiable method to weigh achievement and frame moments in an historical sequence. But then the records themselves gain a foggy mystery and an academic remoteness. The mystique of vibrant sports figures begin to dim, beside the solemnly collected and assiduously studied data. Records themselves become the Rosetta Stone for understanding the language of sports.

In terms of the mystique of records, the last three years have been a revelatory period in speed sailing. In October of 2008, a French kitesurfer, Sebastien Cattelan, cracked an unprecedented 50 knots at the Lüderitz Speed Challenge. Within a month, the 50-knot threshold became the equivalent of a four-minute mile. At once undreamt-of, now suddenly very attainable. More fascinating than the record itself is another Frenchman, Alain Thébault, a defiant, self-proclaimed “Icarus of the sea,” who has pushed the record to 51.4 knots, as of September 2009. When our historical consciousness fades temporarily, the mystique of our “Icarus” grows.



By this summer, the NBA might see a very different barometer of “unprecedence” forged. Last summer, Boston Celtics power forward Rasheed Wallace was brought in to compliment the defensive prowess of the team. Celtics fans also hoped his diminished playing time would keep his intensity high but his ejections and technical fouls low. Throughout his fifteen years in the league, Wallace has most resembled Thor, the mythological, thunder-clapping, and bearded Anglo-Saxon.

When introduced to those fans, Wallace said that he would accept happily any role that coach Doc Rivers would assign him, as long as it led to victories. Mostly, that’s exactly what he’s done for the aging Eastern Conference contender. This NBA season, Wallace has averaged almost 24 minutes, but with an astonishing fourteen technical fouls. For every five quarters he spends on the court, Wallace gets a technical foul. Likely, he will fall short of his own regular-season record of 41 technicals in a season. But, if he remains on pace (and on the floor), Wall will set a new record for most technical-fouls-per-minutes-on-the-floor. A dubious record, indeed.

A dubious new standard in the world of college recruiting has been estabished, as well. In the first week of February, the University of Florida set a precedent for monopolizing ESPNU 150 recruits: he brought in 15 of them, including four in the top ten. Aside from the usual moral qualms I have about the insulated and upside-down world of college recruiting, I consider the mania around National Signing Day especially misplaced. In fact, Meyer’s recruiting achievement illustrates all the sticky problems with record-breaking.

First, collecting talent does not ordain winning seasons or grabbing championships. Since Pete Carroll’s arrival, the USC program has dominated recruiting, but has never matched the success of 2005, which is almost a half-decade ago. The real significance of accumulating stud high school players or home runs or speed sailing records might pale beside the furor that the topic initially raises.


Secondly, and more importantly, you have to consider the “Michael E. Mann Factor.” In 2001, Mann, a celebrated climatologist and professor at Penn State University, crafted a graph (known as “the hockey stick graph”) that gave a powerfully visual weight to the polemical environmentalist’s position of global warming. It would feature prominently in Al Gore’s book and movie An Inconvenient Truth. Last year, though, private emails sent by Mann and circulated on the web seemed to give credence to the fact that he (and perhaps other climatologists) had distorted evidence to verify the existence of climate change and alarm the public. Now, this discovery does not shake the scientific foundation for climate change research, but it does illustrate how even someone professionally invested in objectivity can be willing to distort evidence to fit a preconceived notion or even a widely-held professional consensus.

Let me explain how the Michael E. Mann Factor weighs in college recruiting. A consensus is established around a program or a coach, simply as a talent evaluator or as talent developer. Since the evidence on a recruit’s ability is weak, recruits rise and fall depending on how their stock is graded by those very coaches and programs. As at a roulette table, three-star athletes are transformed into five-star guys, and five-star players slip into mediocrity.

Again, a consensus is formed around a recruit and even a region (Florida is talent-rich, Connecticut is not). Since Florida coach Urban Meyer is a great recruiter, the ESPNU and Rivals.com recruitniks will always rate his classes highly. Even though their previous estimations had those same athletes rated low. (As long as he happens to win championships, too.) And, since the recruitniks will always rate him highly, the legend of coach Urban Meyer as a great recruiter grows. (It also helps that he lauds his recruits, like a gushing mother hen. Meyer has suggested this 2010 crop is, to a person, the finest individuals, the brightest academic stars, and the best football players available, before they ever play a meaningful down or attend a college class. Remember, too, that the last time he brought in classes this talented, 2006 and 2007, those athletes accumulated a collective rap sheet of about twenty arrests.)

Ironically, this is how great programs are brought low: hubris. Just ask Bobby Bowden.

All-Time Player I Would Start a Franchise With

Throw a rock and you'll hit a list of "Best Football Players Ever," "Best Quarterbacks Ever," etc. I'm always fascinated by the criteria (championships rings, or their effect on the game, or their ability to raise a team's performance). I decided to give another question a go: "Which player would I take in an All-Time Draft?" I could have Jim Brown, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, or Dick Butkus, but I would take the player Vince Lombardi called "the finest player I've ever coached:" Forrest Gregg.

Gregg played left tackle for Lombardi's Packers from 1956 to 1971, before finishing his career with a Super Bowl VI-winning Dallas Cowboys team. With the Packers, he won five other championships, leading the way for Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung and creating a pocket for Bart Starr. He played 188 consecutive games, a record. He was powerful enough to handle Hall of Fame defensive end Deacon Jones, when they played in one of the great individual match-ups, and athletic enough to seal the edge on those famous sweeps. The Jones-Gregg battles encompassed a great contrast in player styles, with Jones's bluster and passion and Gregg's dispassionate consistency.

Granted, he played left tackle in an era before the era of dominant pass-rushers. But I've seen enough to think he could have adapted his game in any ear or any scheme. I particularly like the idea of building a franchise from the offensive line. Maybe I should have taken Anthony Munoz, but I would be skeptical of his ability to stay healthy for ten years. Remember Munoz failed a physical before the 1980 draft. (As it turned out, Munoz missed three games in his first twelve seasons, but I'm still skeptical as a theoretical GM.)

Title Game Wrap-up

In a disappointing title game, Alabama beat Texas, 37-21. Texas's Colt McCoy was knocked out on the first drive, and Garrett Gilbert threw a killer interception returned for a touchdown before halftime. The team rallied and got some shocking big plays in the middle of the defense.

Give credit to Nick Saban for adjusting on the fly. Alabama's defense bore down on Texas and got some key turnovers. Javier Arenas saw his stock fall, but Rolando McClain will certainly get drafted in the top 10. Maybe the Chiefs or Raiders? For Texas, you have to wonder what kind of point differential would his presence carry? Ten? Gilbert got some big game experience and that will be enough to give their team some hope next year.

Unfortunately, none of us got the game we wanted. Even Alabama fans have to admit this is not how they wanted to win a title. The next college football questions are: how high does Boise State rank in the 2010 preseason? How good will the Big 12 be, and could we see Nebraska ascend? Can the SEC win a fifth straight BCS title? Who is John Brantley?

BCS Bowl Game Preview

The 2010 Bowl Season is upon us, and, even though each bowl season has come to feel endless (in a bad way), I'm excited. For the last few years, I've been disappointed by some of the match-ups (Illinois-USC two years ago, Texas-Ohio State last year). Maybe fans should redirect their outrage from the BCS to the bowl selection committees. But, I say with regained composure, I'm excited. Here are the five BCS bowl games, and how I see them playing out:

January 1, 2010: Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. Cincinnati

This game pits the most overhyped team (2009 Gators) against the least hyped undefeated team I've ever seen (2009 Bearcats). When I've heard anyone suggest that the Bearcats might beat Alabama or Texas, that same person says it so slyly the boast might be understood as a practical joke. Watching the Bearcats evolve over the last season, watching them absorb misfortune after misfortune, has convinced me that they win despite the fact that they're the last stop on the Tim Tebow and (maybe) Urban Meyer Farewell Tour. I predict a cozy and high-scoring victory for Cincinnati, 45-21.

January 1, 2010: Rose Bowl -Oregon vs. Ohio State

This is secretly one of the best games of the bowl season. Both teams overcame media debacles at the start of the season, and won their respective better-than-anticipated conferences. Though Tressel's squad has lost three consecutive BCS bowls, Ohio State showed up in last year's Fiesta Bowl with a great performance. No one is certain what to expect from Chip Kelly at this point in his career, so the game should give us a good barometer of where these teams are going in the new decade. I pick Oregon in a surprisingly high-scoring game, 31-28.

January 4, 2010: Fiesta Bowl - Boise State vs. TCU

I'll be honest. I haven't gotten to see a complete game for either of these teams. So I'll keep the punditry to a minimum. I love watching Boise State, I believe TCU to have a great defense. Both coaches seem like they're committed to their mid-major for the long haul, and they will see the BCS cartel fall within their careers. The game goes to overtime and TCU wins, 35-31.

January 2, 2010: Orange Bowl - Iowa vs. Georgia Tech

Strange that I have picked so many of these games as high-scoring, but you don't get to the BCS table without some explosive playmakers. Unless you play great defense and adequate offense in the Big 10 (Iowa), and unless you mop up with weaker ACC teams with a well-executed and fresh scheme (Georgia Tech). What might have happened if Georgia Tech had played Miami later in the season? What might have happened if Rick Stanzi had not gotten injured? We'll never know. Iowa wins, 24-14.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

Here's my new column, on the Saints-Cowboys game:

What the Saints Can Learn

The Blind Side Movie Review

I dropped in to see The Blind Side last night, and was very pleasantly surprised. I was a big fan of Michael Lewis's book but had been skeptical of its adaptability and the way the movie had been marketed. The book spent more time exploring the history of football over the last twenty years, and the movie (perhaps wisely) cut most of that.

The Blind Side is a genuine tearjerker. Usually, that term is thrown around pejoratively, insinuating that a movie has left the audience with an exploited, used feeling. But some movies come by their sentiment honestly, and The Blind Side is just such a movie. It is not simply a sad story because Michael Oher is abandoned or because he comes from a bad neighborhood. It's an emotionally complicated story, ruminating on guilt, violence, resentment, race, and gender. Like the book, it falls apart about three-quarters of the way through: it doesn't have the neat symmetry of fiction, after all.

The casting is good, though I only dimly understand why Quinton Aaron was chosen for the role of Michael Oher. Oher himself does not have the doughy innocent features of Aaron, and I can only guess that he was chosen because he doesn't convey a smidgin of violence at all. (At Ole Miss, Oher did get into some trouble off the field.)

John Lee Hancock, the film's screenwriter and director, deserves the credit though. Oddly enough, I watched A Perfect World (a movie he wrote and Clint Eastwood directed) the night before. I was struck by its genuine emotional weight, too, and it's clearly the better movie. With both screenplays, Hancock explores the relationship between adults and children and the violence meted out by both. I think he deserves a lot more attention than he's gotten so far.

2009 College Football Rankings

These are my humble rankings for the week of December 1, 2009:

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Cincinnati
5. Boise State
6. TCU
7. Oregon
8. Iowa
9. Georgia Tech
10. Pittsburgh
11. Virginia Tech
12. Ohio State
13. BYU
14. Miami
15. LSU
16. Penn State
17. Houston
18. Oklahoma State
19. Oregon State
20. Stanford
21. Nebraska
22. West Virgina
23. Clemson
24. California
25. Utah

Teams that have good reason to complain about this ranking: TCU, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Nebraska, Houston, Ohio State
Teams that don't: LSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Ohio State

2009 Egg Bowl: Ole Miss at Mississippi State

Mississippi State exploited the edge against Ole Miss's ends as I suggested they would here: http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/jfp.php/comments/an_appetizing_egg_bowl_112509.

Even though Ole Miss was able to allow their defensive ends to get upfield and cause havoc the week before (against LSU), the Rebels front was not able to slow down the option game. When State went to the air, they used "flood" concepts to beat the Rebel's aggressive defensive backfield.

Defensively, the Bulldogs also came up with three interceptions against Jevan Snead. Ole Miss will return next year with a bare cupboard, and State returns a lot of young talent. A swing in power within Mississippi?

Book Review: Meat Market: Inside the Smash-Mouth World of College Football Recruiting by Bruce Feldman

Meat Market focuses on one recruiting season for the University of Mississippi’s football program. Under the guidance of head coach (and former recruiting guru) Ed Orgeron, the Ole Miss program is expected to land top ten classes, then eventually top ten regular-season rankings. In the recruiting world, that year (2007) seemed like something imagined by Ionesco, fore-grounded by Jimmy Clausen’s stretch Hummer limousine and four national titles in South Bend.

A regular ESPN contributor, Bruce Feldman writes in the style of the fifteen-minute Sportscenter segment: clearly composed, well-researched, superficial. There are no shocking revelations, even if the exact methods of circumventing NCAA rules make some fans uncomfortable. More disappointingly, Feldman does not analyze (question?) some of the presumptions in recruiting circles, as Michael Lewis (and Billy Beane) did in Moneyball.

Most fans will find the process of evaluating high school prospects informative. How does one 320-lb. defensive tackle grade out as five-star, while this one grades out as two-star? The frequent accuracy of professional scouting is undeniable, but greater insight into the trade might have been given by a different author. As I suggested earlier, at USC, Orgeron gained a reputation for finding “creative” ways to enroll players with questionable GPAs. Frankly, I don’t have a problem with it; once a player enrolls however, they should pursue a credible course of study.

The most interesting passages of the book, aside from the outrageous second-hand accounts of Orgeron’s locker-room antics, are the exchanges between the head coach and his recruiting/coaching staff. One recruiter brags that he will be able to land the most coveted running back in the country (He doesn’t). A different recruiter slowly finds himself on thin ice after failing to land one targeted player, after another. Between reviewing their targeted prospects, Orgeron and his staff will watch in a tape of the very best 18-year-old prospects (which are beyond his reach), which leaves the room of adult men salivating.

The 2007 recruiting cycle was the last Orgeron engineered as head coach. (He is now recruiting coordinator and defensive line coach at Tennessee.) What Feldman suggests in the last chapter of his book (that Orgeron would need to win in 2007 to see the real fruition of his recruiting successes in 2008 and 2009) has been realized: Houston Nutt led Ole Miss to a preseason top five ranking. In an upset loss to Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina squad, I watched a defense stocked by Orgeron and his staff keep the Rebels in a close game by harassing Stephen Garcia for most of the game.

Strategy Session: How Two-Quarterback Systems Work (09/25/09)

“If you have two quarterbacks, you have none.” Among football pundits, this has become a tautology used against any coach that sees some merit in changing quarterbacks over the course of a season, a quarter, or even a series. The drawbacks are obvious: each quarterback will have varying degrees of experience and composure, a unique skill set, and an approach to attacking a defense informed by those factors. For a passer, subtle changes in ball placement and velocity can derail an offensive gameplan. (From the flip perspective, it’s hard to believe that a coach and a coordinator would have the same confidence in both to run the complete offense.)

But at least two programs have had tremendous success with a two-quarterback system in the last two college football seasons. In looking at LSU and Utah, the benefits strike me as more persuasive than those drawbacks. In 2007, Les Miles alternated between Matt Flynn (a fifth-year senior) and the more athletic Ryan Perrilloux (a third-year sophomore). And Miles and offensive coordinator Gary Crowton did not allow the situation dictate whether Flynn or Perrilloux would be on the field. Flynn led the team back in the fourth quarter against Alabama, and Perrilloux, though almost exclusively used as a running threat, was taking snaps at the beginning of the fourth quarter against Florida - a game in which LSU would score two touchdowns in a late rally (see clip). Perrilloux’s experience would be vital as he would start in place of an injured Flynn the SEC championship against Tennessee. Then, he did not see the field in the National Championship game against Ohio State. (That decision was curious, as the Buckeyes had shown a weakness against mobile quarterbacks, in their only loss of the season, to Juice Williams and the Rose Bowl-bound Illini. But the Tigers prevailed, 38-24, anyway.) Statistically, Perrilloux attempted 25 % as much as Flynn.

Similarly, Kyle Whittingham’s Utah Utes won the 2009 Sugar Bowl against the Alabama Crimson Tide, scoring 31 points (the most that had been scored against the SEC runner-up all season). Though Brian Johnson would get most of the attention (as much attention as the Utes would get), the first touchdown was scored on a designed quarterback draw by his back-up Corbin Louks against the Michigan Wolverines. Statistically, Louks would only attempt seven passes but he would be third on the team in carries (27) and yards (213), with a long of 69 yards. The Mountain West Conference champion would finish #2 overall in the final AP poll.

The offenses of the 2007 Tigers and 2008 Utes were two-quarterback systems that worked, and they worked by careful attention to game situation and play design. (For instance, both Louks and Perilloux would occasionally throw downfield off the option play.) Perhaps more importantly, a coordinator and coach would also have to handle the confidence (or ego) of both players. But the goal of this entry will be strictly Xs and Os.

One of the major struggles so far for the 2009 Tigers is managing a similar quarterback situation, between second-year starter Jordan Jefferson and first-year five-star recruit Russell Shepard. Already, some have questioned how well Shepard (as a run-only threat) is being used. (From what I’ve seen, I doubt that the humble Shepard is disgruntled.) How did these two previous conference champions use the two-quarterback system as an asset in tightly-contested games to their advantage?

In the first clip, offensive coordinator calls a fake reverse option to the left. Early in the first quarter, against #9 Florida’s young, aggressive defense, the call works well for a first down. The Gators load up the box on Perrilloux, predominately used as a running threat, but bite on the fake reverse, clearing a lane for Perrilloux and the option man, Keiland Williams.

When Crowton calls a similar play early in the fourth quarter, the line is unbalanced to the running side (the right this time). Not only will the Tigers probably run the ball, they can only run the ball. The Gators are in good position, but this time the math privileges the Tigers, who gain another first down with the play.

As simple as this strategy is, the last two years is littered with teams that have mismanaged their quarterback situation, including Miami (with Jacory Harris and Robert Marve) and Virginia Tech (with Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon). Altogether benching one of those players (as Jim Tressel did with Todd Boeckman) should also qualify as a botched strategy.

Fast-forward to the 2009 LSU Tigers. To this point, Shepard has not attempted a pass, averaging 6.9 yard per rushing attempt on 7 carries. The chief concern with involving Shepard in the passing game more is that Jordan Jefferson has been overly cautious with the ball, choosing to manage games against three unranked teams rather than challenging their defensive backs down field. Whether the Tigers feature Shepard in big games or not, their offensive success will be predicated on Jefferson willingness to do so.