2011 NFL Mock Draft

The draft this year is fascinating, as it smells a lot like 2006, when a bunch of hyped top-10 players bottomed out of the league. Mostly, it was because the skills of players like Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart didn't translate well to the NFL. 2011 is a classic "disaster draft," in which teams have high picks and money to burn, but the talent isn't there.

In fact, those great USC teams of the early 2000s have produced very little elite NFL talent. Maybe it was the protective, tolerant environment that Pete Carroll created, maybe it was his great coaching staff that concealed the considerable weaknesses of individual players. It's probably some combination. I'd call this confluence of factors, "the Behemoth Effect."

Anyway, here's my predictions for the first ten picks of the 2011 NFL Draft. The next ten to follow.

1. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers might open the season without both DeAngelo Williams (free agent) and Steve Smith (trade). They're going to have to go through the basement for a couple years in order to get to the penthouse eventually. Smart money is on Auburn quarterback Cam Newton, since new coach Ron Rivera (in previous coaching stop, with the Philadelphia Eagles) has seen what a mobile, versatile quarterback (Donovan McNabb) can do, if complemented by a strong defense.

2. Denver Broncos

Forget the on-field catastrophe of the Broncos, as coached by Josh McDaniels. Look at all those dreadful drafting decisions. Tim Tebow, Richard Quinn, Robert Ayers, Demaryius Thomas, Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith. With four first-round choices, McDaniels came up with with role players and trade bait. Broncos fans must hope John Elway and John Fox can course-correct this franchise and fast. Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is the pick, but I'm still not convinced that Dareus is anything more than a 3-4 starter. He's not a sack artist or a dominator.

3. Buffalo Bills

Call them the Buffalo Blaines. The Bills will take Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert, whose stock is inflated at this point. The quarterbacks in this class are underwhelming, but Gabbert completes passes and has mobility. Some years that's all it takes.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

It's a shame that wide receiver Chad Johnson is buried in a franchise with so many problems. On a different team, you could easily see him having a career like Michael Irvin or . Johnson will get a protege in A.J. Green, which might mean a late-career resurgence for him, a la Cris Carter. But not if the Bengals refuse to replace Carson Palmer. Palmer is on the downside, even if he un-retires. Move forward, guys.

5. Arizona Cardinals

Von Miller's name is rushed to the podium. Only one year after Karlos Dansby fled, the Cardinals get an outside linebacker that will make their 3-4 defense hum. Don't be surprised if Miller racks up rookie-of-the-year honors and is considered one of the smartest choices in this draft five years from now.

6. Cleveland Browns

Mike Holmgren made a bizarre choice for head coach this off-season. Of course, when they were hired as head coaches, Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy were met with puzzlement. Then again, maybe Holmgren doesn't want a big personality to compete against. Holmgren likes collecting wide receivers in the draft, but I would guess that Robert Quinn is taken. Visions of legendary UNC pass rushers like Lawrence Taylor and Julius Peppers will be dancing through their heads.

7. San Francisco 49ers

I think this pick could be traded, as Harbaugh realizes the quarterback and cornerback value in this draft is later. Free agency will be abbreviated, so teams like the 49ers need to address all of their needs with college talent. If Harbaugh keeps the pick, it will be Patrick Peterson, a pick that they won't regret.

8. Tennessee Titans

Even though Nick Fairley seems like a great fit here, the Titans pass. Head coach Mike Munchak knows better than to doom his stint by sinking money and draft picks into unreliable players. Instead, they go with wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones is undervalued; as great as Green was at Georgia, Jones made more plays more consistently. He's not just a possession receiver either.

9. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys could go for . I think Jerry Jones trades down and stumps everyone by taking running back Mark Ingram. Instantly, he solidifies a position that is in disarray. He might just go ahead and take Ingram here. As talented as Felix Jones is, he just might not be the grinder that this offense, explosive but inconsistent, needs.

10. Washington Redskins

The Redskins take offensive tackle Tyron Smith. The biggest problem with this team was not the quarterback play or the black hole at running back. It's a fact that Chris Samuels, a great, under-appreciated player, has never been replaced. On the other hand, the Redskins might take Nick Fairley and just start collecting troubled defensive tackles from the SEC.

NFL: Week Five News

The Patriots Way: New England is 3-1, lifted by great special teams (2 touchdowns, a blocked punt, and a blocked field goal last Monday) and a very diverse group of receivers. But they traded away Randy Moss, who I've always claimed was the closest thing to an "unstoppable" presence in the NFL, for a third- and seventh-round picks. The Patriots Way is part football strategy, part stock market speculation. In this case, Belichick dumped a commodity when its value is overrated, his competitors panic, and the coach sees a long-term/short-term benefit to maximizing other resources.

Impressive Starts: The Jets are also 3-1, and the loss was a one-point game which they might have been able to win had Dustin Keller not made an enormous route-running gaffe. Sanchez has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8-to-0. Though I was skeptical of the team--too loud, not enough roster depth--they have handily dispatched all three of their division rivals. You also have to applaud the Kansas City Chiefs, who patiently built their team through the draft: Glenn Dorsey, Dexter McCluster, Javier Arenas, Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers, and Eric Berry look like a strong core that should be able to compete at a high level for the next decade. Among the .500 pack that might make a run includes the Miami Dolphins and the entire NFC West.

Looking Forward to the 2011 Draft: The Buffalo Bills are in pace for the No. 1 overall spot in the draft. Chan Gailey is overmatched as an NFL head coach, though he has coaxed good performances from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Who might they take? Quarterbacks Ryan Mallett or Terrelle Pryor? Linebacker Greg Jones? Bills fans deserve better than speculating on next year's draft in early October.

NFL Draft Recap: Players Who Will Outperform Players Drafted Ahead of Them

LeBron's out of the playoffs, the MLB season is in its early pages, and , so I decided to make the unlikely decision to post on the NFL Draft, about a month after it took place. I'd prefer to talk about my Hornets landing an elite player at the top of the NBA Draft, but apparently basketball in New Orleans has received another body blow.

Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers

"The Mile-High Messiah"? Try "Tebench." I've seen Tebow in about twenty games, from his first college touchdown pass against the LSU Tigers to his last, against the Cincinnati Bearcats. Forget his drunken footwork or his mediocre foot speed. When he threw the ball, it was rarely a spiral. Not only will the throwing window in the NFL become narrower, but Tebow is going to have to throw a "catchable" pass. The NFL is about precision and fundamentals, and Tebow has neither.

Clausen, on the other hand, was seen as the anti-Tebow. He was an arrogant kid, who arrived in South Bend in a stretch Hummer and announced his ambition to win four Heismans and four national championships. His personality is a big turnoff, and conjures up memories of Ryan Leaf.

But Clausen also has what it takes to win close games, which is all I ask for from a starting NFL quarterback. See 2009 Purdue, see 2009 Michigan State, see a handful of other games in which Charlie Weis's clock management doomed the Fighting Irish. When/if John Fox is fired and Bill Cowher is brought in, Clausen's potential will be a major draw.

Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots

This UF player was dominant last season, the only player that I really feared after Dan Mullins left Gainesville. He was healthier throughout his career than Rob Gronkowski (2nd round, Patriots) or Jermaine Gresham (1st round, Bengals). But after watching Tom Brady eviscerate Benjamin Watson, a former first-round pick at the position, for poor route-running, you wonder how Hernandez, who has a similar problem and ran a lot of screens and short outlet routes during his career, will mesh with Brady.

Charles Brown, New Orleans Saints

Left tackle Charles Brown was another Trojan who came into college football with so much hype that any career short of all-time greatness would be disappointing. Like Joe McKnight and Everson Griffen, Brown became a serviceable, occasionally great, college player who could become a better professional player. Brown blocked for John David Booty, Mark Sanchez, and a freshman, Matt Barkley, during his career, so I'm still not convinced that he was held back by the players around him.

Brown was drafted behind Trent Williams (1st round, Washington Redskins), who has the dubious virtue of being able to play right or left tackle, and Bryan Bulaga (1st round, Green Bay Packers), who is this year's Mystery Meat. Re: Williams, why is being able to play two positions valuable, when one position has so much more value than the other. If Williams is not playing left tackle for the Redskins in five years, he's a bust at number four overall. And, is Bulaga the next Robert Gallery?

Super Bowl Coverage

Here's an article I wrote for the Alexandria Town Talk. It's about the defensive line coach, Bill Johnson, who is an alum of Northwestern State University:

Bill Johnson Turns Around Saints D-Line

Super Bowl

There's a number of excellent articles out there on the upcoming game. The New York Times has one on the Saints' remarkable ability to strip the ball and another on the politically outspoken Scott Fujita. Reuters reports that the EA Sports game Madden 2010 has the Saints winning. Also, I have a column in the Jackson Free Press's Super Bowl issue. The link is below:

The People's Victory

Free Agency and the Saints

Below is a link to a great article on the Saints' history in free agency. I would squabble that the Joe Horn signing should probably be at No.3, over QB Bobby Hebert, even though Horn blew up his team's chemistry. But, then again, Hebert crippled his team during a key season by holding out (1990). After just a single season, I'm ready to put safety Darren Sharper up there as well. He changed the dynamic of the defense by making teams pay for guessing against Gregg Williams's schemes.

Greatest Free Agency Signings in Saints History

Conference Championships

AFC Championship: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Schadenfreude: pleasure felt from someone else's misfortune. The Colts gave the Jets a bid to the playoffs, and now the Jets stand in their way from grabbing another Super Bowl appearance. Would a Colts victory justify Caldwell's decision to pull his starters and give up an undefeated season in Week 16? No. Would a Colts loss confirm the fans' disgust with the decision? No. Might a loss precipitate a locker room insurrection similar to Bill Callahan's stint with the Raiders? Yes. The Colts win, though, 40-21.

NFC Championship: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

This is the collision course matchup that everyone saw from about Week 3. The Vikings have been more variable in production than any other team. They lost to Pittsburg, Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago. Those teams combined for one playoff appearance this year. The Saints have pulled off some great comebacks and have back a handful of key players from injuries last week. The presence of tight end Jeremy Shockey and the production of running back Reggie Bush are very important.

New Orleans has the technically perfect quarterback (Drew Brees), a great marketing campaign ("Who Dat nation"), and an explosive offense and defense. Minnesota can claim the world's worst Prince anthem, the oldest starting playoff quarterback, and Adrian the Great. I take the Vikings, 27-14.

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

The first round of the NFL playoffs was very disappointing. Each game was lost because of a lack of discipline and enthusiasm. The Patriots, the Bengals, and the Eagles were disinterested embarrassments. The final game of the weekend (Packers at Cardinals) proved a Madden-like scoring bonanza, with an added bit of controversy when the officials missed a final-play face mask penalty. Today, the final eight enter the tournament.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner is coming in very hot, and the Saints have turned it off the last three weeks. I remember watching Warner during his "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis, and I disliked his attitude and lack of toughness. This is the case of the unstoppable force and immovable object. Drew Brees and the Saints offense get hot in the second half but early sacks and turnovers haunt them.

The Cardinals win, 31-21.


Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have gotten grief for turning it off this year, with the possibility of repeating mistakes of 2005, 2007, and 2008. Quarterback Joe Flacco deserves a world of credit for guiding him team deep into the playoffs in his first two years, and he does more at this point in his career than Ben Roethlisberger. During the Colts' title run in 2006, Manning beat the Ravens, relying mostly on his defense to force Steve McNair's red zone errors. In fact, he Ravens don't have a lot of success against Manning to this point at all.

But I see the Ravens steeling a victory in overtime, 20-14.


New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

Mark Sanchez has struggled since Week 3, and his exuberant SoCal personality by a dour frown. ("Mark Sanchez face" is the expression a quarterback has when a poor offensive coordinator shits in his cereal.) Norv Turner has proven to be a great hire for a Chargers franchise that needed a smart, big-picture head honcho. They exploit the weaknesses in the Jets offense and don't give up easy first downs by playing undisciplined defense (as the Bengals did). The Chargers win, 37-10.



Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Give credit to Brett Favre: he picked a vehicle with speed and power as a final career moment. The Vikings great defense, though aged, have been overlooked in the ongoing Favre debacle. Before last week, Dallas had not won a playoff game since 1996. The Cowboys start another losing streak. Vikings win, 20-6.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

Here's my new column, on the Saints-Cowboys game:

What the Saints Can Learn

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (11/30/09)

Monday night, Tom Brady brought his explosive offense into the Superdome to play the unbeaten New Orleans Saints. While watching the game, I considered how both have evolved their strategic approaches in the last three years. New England has incorporated spread concepts into their offense, and, this season, the defense New Orleans has taken on the identity of new coordinator Gregg Williams. It leads me to reflect on how and when strategic adjustments should be made.

The Saints defense has been the team's most improved area this season. Even with both starting corners out, and free agents castaways at corner, they attacked the Pats shotgun-spread. Williams is not going to wait for Mike McKenzie, Chris McAlister, and rookie Malcolm Jenkins to catch up. He's committed absolutely to his scheme. Remember that the Pats, too, have remained loyal to their scheme, since switching to it in 2007. That zealous committment seemed to catch up to them in the 2008 Super Bowl. Will we see the same for Williams's defense?

Offensively, the Saints relied on max-protect schemes (sometimes only sending two receivers into routes). With left tackle Jammal Brown out, the adjustment seemed warranted. On the other side, there's the Patriots defense. In the offseason, the Patriots adapted their defensive schemes to new personnel, chuffing aside Belicheck's effective 3-deep and 4-deep zone coverage schemes. This season, they have relied on man coverage more often and, against New Orleans, it cost them. Throughout the game, receivers broke free, sometimes against zone and sometimes against man. Commentators have blamed the youth and inexperience of the Pats backfield, but that's never stopped them before (see the long list of rookie contributors in the Pats' run to three titles). Have the off-season schematic adjustments created some uncertainty in that once reliable backfield?

Predicting NFL Success

Advanced NFL stats has put together a spiffy new way of predicting the future success of NFL teams. The goal is to calculate the probability that a team would beat an average team at a neutral site, from offensive and defensive stats against factors like penalty rates.

It would be interesting to see if Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Denver are there at the end, and if Minnesota is overrated.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/10/efficiency-rankings-week-8.html

NFL Progress Reports

One of my favorite aspects of the professional games is roster management. Perhaps because I have played Madden in Franchise mode for too long, I have followed the movement and development of talent in the NFL closely for the better half of the last decade, sometimes more closely than scores and victories. With the salary cap in place, the annual draft carries the most weight for a team’s success (especially over the long term).

That bloggers jump to premature conclusions is a fair criticism, and I am not exception. How is the 2009 Draft shaping up in retrospect? How does a good draft or a bad draft shape a team’s immediate success? By taking a look at the drafts of the two of the most surprising and two of the most disappointing teams, maybe we can discern a few trends.

Minnesota Vikings (6-0)

Key picks: WR Percy Harvin (20 catches, 243 receiving yards), OT Phil Loadholt (6 starts)

The biggest surprise of this young season for me is the emergence of rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin. I was skeptical of his NFL potential because of questions regarding his college system, attitude, and health, but he has emerged as a young versatile talent for the Vikings to pair with RB Adrian Peterson for years. (I was very big on WR Hakeem Nicks, who has turned out to be just as good, and maybe more explosive, for the New York Giants). As big an acquisition as QB Brett Favre has been, Phil Loadholt has surprisingly contributed great production for one of the league’s best offensive lines. Both players were featured in their dramatic comeback victory against San Francisco in the third week of the season.

New Orleans Saints (5-0)

Key picks: CB Malcolm Jenkins (1 recovered fumble), P Thomas Morstead (43.9 average)

Two-fourths of the Saints’ 2009 draft was lost to injury in training camp. The early success of the Saints is driven by veterans (CB Jabari Greer and S Darren Sharper), so the concern is whether they can sustain their high level of play throughout the postseason and into future seasons. If they can’t, that means their high cap number and the less experienced draft picks could limit the team’s flexibility in the future.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)

Key picks: QB Josh Freeman (0 starts), Roy Miller (14 tackles, 1 sack)

If Jon Gruden’s history was any indication, similar results would have been in store for the Bucs whether Raheem Morris was the head coach or not. Still, the Bucs’ investment into WRs Michael Clayton (11 catches, 154 yards) and Antonio Byrant (14 catches, 178 yards) looks more puzzling every game that rookie seventh-round pick Sammie Stroughter basically matches their performance (13 catches, 151 yards). The Bucs look like they hit on multiple picks but the trade of disappointing DE Gaines Adams and the questionable maturity of QB Josh Freeman make me wonder how bright the future really is.

Tennessee Titans (0-6)

Key picks: WR Kenny Britt (289 receiving yards), DT Sen’Derrick Marks (1 tackle)

The puzzler for me is why Head Coach Jeff Fisher refuses to put quarterback Vince Young on the field. Nevertheless, when I looked at the stats, I was surprised to see that the Titans have actually been committed to a youth movement this year. Players such as Jason McCourty and Jared Cook are getting valuable experience. Still, in the absense of Albert Haynesworth, they could use more push in the middle of the line from Marks or second-year players Jason Jones (3 sacks) and William Hayes (1.5 sacks).This year, the results are bad, but I think they are in line for another double-digit winning season next year.

Conclusion

Free agency has played a bigger factor so far. Other winning teams that are getting great minutes from rookies include the Cincinnati Bengals (OT Andre Smith) and the New York Jets (QB Mark Sanchez). I look forward to returning to this issue during the playoffs to see how our young stars are performing.

Game Preview: New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

The only match-up of undefeated teams this weekend features some intriguing plotlines. Drew Brees, who nearly broke the NFL record for yardage and may actually do it this year, will face a defense that ranks second in points allowed. The Jets head coach Rex Ryan features an aggressive, blitzing defense that has frustrated three quarterbacks with a combined twenty-eight years of NFL experience and five Super Bowl appearances. But it hasn’t faced a receiving corps as deep nor a release as quick as the one Brees brings with him into this game.

There are some parallels to 1985, when a tough Chicago defense swaggered into the Orange Bowl for a late regular-season game with Dan Marino’s Miami Dolphins. Rex Ryan’s father, the legendary defensive coordinator Bud Ryan had conceived the 46 defense (named after #46 Doug Plank) for a defense that boasted four Hall-of-Famers and would lead the team through a dominating Super Bowl run. Bud Ryan would be carried off the field along with head coach Mike Ditka.

On December 2, 1985, however, that Chicago team was bested, 38-24, by a third-year quarterback with a fast release. Marino had already broken the yardage record and won league MVP the previous year, his second in the league. The Bears defense, which featured linebackers like Mike Singletary that were ineffective in pass coverage, looked baffled and mediocre that night, but would rally the rest of the way to become perhaps the greatest unit in NFL history.

This parallel might be strained: Brees is not Marino; Rex Ryan’s Jets defense is more athletic; and neither team, as of yet, is guaranteed a long run through the playoffs. Looking back on this game in December, we might see two 7-7 teams or two 12-2 teams. All the same, this game will shape those fortunes more than any other in the first month. Will an improved Saints defense handle the rookie, Mark Sanchez? How will their two aggressive play-callers, Ryan and Saints head coach Sean Payton, attack each other?

I would like to look at the ways Ryan has frustrated the opposing quarterback first, and then examine some of the ways Payton and Brees will try to counteract that defense. In Tom Brady’s second regular-season game since his knee surgery and recovery, Ryan harassed Brady with basic arithmetic and outstanding athleticism. Early in the first quarter, before the snap, Ryan’s defense showed an eight-man front and Brady chose to keep seven blockers in with three receivers running vertical routes. When Ryan chooses to bring seven defenders, four to the offense’s right side, the offensive line fails to slide and pick up the extra blitzers. Brady throws a pass up to Randy Moss (who should probably win against the smaller Darrelle Revis) but the pass is intercepted. The Patriots offensive line usually relies on dual reads: most of their offensive line will read multiple defenders to see if they blitz. If both blitz, then the quarterback should take a shorter pass, rather than risk a sack. At the end of this play, one player (tight end Benjamin Watson) will have two players to block and another (guard Logan Mankins) no one to block.

In the second week of the season, Drew Brees faced a typically aggressive Eagles defense that blitzed about six defenders most of the time. Against the blitz, Brees made accurate downfield throws. On one key third down in the third quarter, needing eleven yards, Brees faced nine men in the middle of the field, with each receiver locked down by a cornerback with no safety help. Before the snap, he looks almost excited about the coverage. Brees takes a seven-step drop, and the line caves in, but he completes a 31 yard wheel route to the left sideline to Devery Henderson, just out of the reach of Sheldon Brown. Importantly, Henderson lined up almost fifteen yards from the sideline, giving the opportunity of “pulling away” to the left, from the defender.

Unlike Brady, who was recovering from surgery and looked skittish in the pocket, Brees will relish the opportunity to throw against single man coverage, even if he takes a few hits while standing in the pocket. However, unlike the Lions defense (week one) and the Bills defense (week three), the Jets will not allow him to slide in the pocket, reload, and throw on the run. Though they have made explosive plays in the first few weeks, the key plays in this game will be the five yard dump-offs that sustain drives.

Book Review: About Three Bricks Shy of A Full Load by Roy Blount, Jr.

I was directed to this book by one of the better articles on the state of professional football by a non-sports journalist. That essayist, Adam Gopnik, who writes in the long-established New Yorker style (intellectualized, precise, etc.), casually recommended Blount's book as one of the great works of non-fiction on the sport. About Three Bricks documents the 1973 season of the Pittsburgh Steelers. If you have read Gopnik, you can see the attraction: Blount does not indulge in strategy or jargon, and maintains the kind of bemused distance characteristic of, say, Joseph Mitchell's "Profiles" columns. There isn't a lot of penetrating reporting here, but there are great personality sketches and a refreshing take on the sport. (One of the weaknesses Gopnik points to is Blount's avoidance of the steroid innovation and use by the 1970s Steelers.)

Blount brings a perspective, a kind of popular sociology, to the professional football landscape. As I mentioned, the character sketches are great: Chuck Noll, Art Rooney, Terry Bradshaw, Jack Lambert, and even 1950s Steelers coach Buddy Parker are caught in unusual and fascinating lights. I also found Blount's observations on how race shaped the franchise and period refreshing. For instance, many of the players suspected each other of one expression of racism or another, with Bradshaw accusing Noll himself of favoring African American players. Of course, Noll's greatest asset was his unprejudiced eye for talent: he drafted Hall of Fame players from traditionally African American schools like Alabama A & M (John Stallworth), commuter schools like the North Texas State University (Joe Greene), and traditional football powers like USC (Lynn Swann) and Wisconsin (Mike Webster).

Apparently, the author of About Three Bricks was lucky in three ways that raise a book from curiosity piece to a vital read for any one interested in the sport's history. First, this book captures the sport and its management at a time when it was shifting into modernity. The antics of Parker are drawn in sharp contrast to the professionalism of Noll. Second, Blount chose the Steelers over the Rams and other teams for two seemingly arbitrary reasons: the 1973 Immaculate Reception (which he saw on live television) and the fact he shared his last name with the great cornerback Mel Blount. As it turned out, he drew a team that would win four Super Bowls over the next decade, gaining a loyal, nation-wide fan base in the process. The third reason that this book stands out as an important read is what might seem to be a weakness to some: Blount does not narrow his focus to the starters or to the coaching and ownership side of the organization. There are chapters on scouting and long passages about backup offensive linemen, that would not have found their way into other books on professional football in the period. (In hindsight, with scouting and management now featured on SportsCenter and debated at the water cooler, this is a great virtue.) But Blount's attraction to this aspect of the game is rooted in his fascination with the marginal talent, the guy with the great nickname and dazzling personality struggling to make a career of professional football, and not the celebrated stars. That sympathy raises this book finally to a terrific accomplishment in the genre.