2011 NFL Mock Draft

The draft this year is fascinating, as it smells a lot like 2006, when a bunch of hyped top-10 players bottomed out of the league. Mostly, it was because the skills of players like Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart didn't translate well to the NFL. 2011 is a classic "disaster draft," in which teams have high picks and money to burn, but the talent isn't there.

In fact, those great USC teams of the early 2000s have produced very little elite NFL talent. Maybe it was the protective, tolerant environment that Pete Carroll created, maybe it was his great coaching staff that concealed the considerable weaknesses of individual players. It's probably some combination. I'd call this confluence of factors, "the Behemoth Effect."

Anyway, here's my predictions for the first ten picks of the 2011 NFL Draft. The next ten to follow.

1. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers might open the season without both DeAngelo Williams (free agent) and Steve Smith (trade). They're going to have to go through the basement for a couple years in order to get to the penthouse eventually. Smart money is on Auburn quarterback Cam Newton, since new coach Ron Rivera (in previous coaching stop, with the Philadelphia Eagles) has seen what a mobile, versatile quarterback (Donovan McNabb) can do, if complemented by a strong defense.

2. Denver Broncos

Forget the on-field catastrophe of the Broncos, as coached by Josh McDaniels. Look at all those dreadful drafting decisions. Tim Tebow, Richard Quinn, Robert Ayers, Demaryius Thomas, Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith. With four first-round choices, McDaniels came up with with role players and trade bait. Broncos fans must hope John Elway and John Fox can course-correct this franchise and fast. Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is the pick, but I'm still not convinced that Dareus is anything more than a 3-4 starter. He's not a sack artist or a dominator.

3. Buffalo Bills

Call them the Buffalo Blaines. The Bills will take Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert, whose stock is inflated at this point. The quarterbacks in this class are underwhelming, but Gabbert completes passes and has mobility. Some years that's all it takes.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

It's a shame that wide receiver Chad Johnson is buried in a franchise with so many problems. On a different team, you could easily see him having a career like Michael Irvin or . Johnson will get a protege in A.J. Green, which might mean a late-career resurgence for him, a la Cris Carter. But not if the Bengals refuse to replace Carson Palmer. Palmer is on the downside, even if he un-retires. Move forward, guys.

5. Arizona Cardinals

Von Miller's name is rushed to the podium. Only one year after Karlos Dansby fled, the Cardinals get an outside linebacker that will make their 3-4 defense hum. Don't be surprised if Miller racks up rookie-of-the-year honors and is considered one of the smartest choices in this draft five years from now.

6. Cleveland Browns

Mike Holmgren made a bizarre choice for head coach this off-season. Of course, when they were hired as head coaches, Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy were met with puzzlement. Then again, maybe Holmgren doesn't want a big personality to compete against. Holmgren likes collecting wide receivers in the draft, but I would guess that Robert Quinn is taken. Visions of legendary UNC pass rushers like Lawrence Taylor and Julius Peppers will be dancing through their heads.

7. San Francisco 49ers

I think this pick could be traded, as Harbaugh realizes the quarterback and cornerback value in this draft is later. Free agency will be abbreviated, so teams like the 49ers need to address all of their needs with college talent. If Harbaugh keeps the pick, it will be Patrick Peterson, a pick that they won't regret.

8. Tennessee Titans

Even though Nick Fairley seems like a great fit here, the Titans pass. Head coach Mike Munchak knows better than to doom his stint by sinking money and draft picks into unreliable players. Instead, they go with wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones is undervalued; as great as Green was at Georgia, Jones made more plays more consistently. He's not just a possession receiver either.

9. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys could go for . I think Jerry Jones trades down and stumps everyone by taking running back Mark Ingram. Instantly, he solidifies a position that is in disarray. He might just go ahead and take Ingram here. As talented as Felix Jones is, he just might not be the grinder that this offense, explosive but inconsistent, needs.

10. Washington Redskins

The Redskins take offensive tackle Tyron Smith. The biggest problem with this team was not the quarterback play or the black hole at running back. It's a fact that Chris Samuels, a great, under-appreciated player, has never been replaced. On the other hand, the Redskins might take Nick Fairley and just start collecting troubled defensive tackles from the SEC.