2011 NFL Mock Draft

The draft this year is fascinating, as it smells a lot like 2006, when a bunch of hyped top-10 players bottomed out of the league. Mostly, it was because the skills of players like Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart didn't translate well to the NFL. 2011 is a classic "disaster draft," in which teams have high picks and money to burn, but the talent isn't there.

In fact, those great USC teams of the early 2000s have produced very little elite NFL talent. Maybe it was the protective, tolerant environment that Pete Carroll created, maybe it was his great coaching staff that concealed the considerable weaknesses of individual players. It's probably some combination. I'd call this confluence of factors, "the Behemoth Effect."

Anyway, here's my predictions for the first ten picks of the 2011 NFL Draft. The next ten to follow.

1. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers might open the season without both DeAngelo Williams (free agent) and Steve Smith (trade). They're going to have to go through the basement for a couple years in order to get to the penthouse eventually. Smart money is on Auburn quarterback Cam Newton, since new coach Ron Rivera (in previous coaching stop, with the Philadelphia Eagles) has seen what a mobile, versatile quarterback (Donovan McNabb) can do, if complemented by a strong defense.

2. Denver Broncos

Forget the on-field catastrophe of the Broncos, as coached by Josh McDaniels. Look at all those dreadful drafting decisions. Tim Tebow, Richard Quinn, Robert Ayers, Demaryius Thomas, Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith. With four first-round choices, McDaniels came up with with role players and trade bait. Broncos fans must hope John Elway and John Fox can course-correct this franchise and fast. Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is the pick, but I'm still not convinced that Dareus is anything more than a 3-4 starter. He's not a sack artist or a dominator.

3. Buffalo Bills

Call them the Buffalo Blaines. The Bills will take Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert, whose stock is inflated at this point. The quarterbacks in this class are underwhelming, but Gabbert completes passes and has mobility. Some years that's all it takes.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

It's a shame that wide receiver Chad Johnson is buried in a franchise with so many problems. On a different team, you could easily see him having a career like Michael Irvin or . Johnson will get a protege in A.J. Green, which might mean a late-career resurgence for him, a la Cris Carter. But not if the Bengals refuse to replace Carson Palmer. Palmer is on the downside, even if he un-retires. Move forward, guys.

5. Arizona Cardinals

Von Miller's name is rushed to the podium. Only one year after Karlos Dansby fled, the Cardinals get an outside linebacker that will make their 3-4 defense hum. Don't be surprised if Miller racks up rookie-of-the-year honors and is considered one of the smartest choices in this draft five years from now.

6. Cleveland Browns

Mike Holmgren made a bizarre choice for head coach this off-season. Of course, when they were hired as head coaches, Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy were met with puzzlement. Then again, maybe Holmgren doesn't want a big personality to compete against. Holmgren likes collecting wide receivers in the draft, but I would guess that Robert Quinn is taken. Visions of legendary UNC pass rushers like Lawrence Taylor and Julius Peppers will be dancing through their heads.

7. San Francisco 49ers

I think this pick could be traded, as Harbaugh realizes the quarterback and cornerback value in this draft is later. Free agency will be abbreviated, so teams like the 49ers need to address all of their needs with college talent. If Harbaugh keeps the pick, it will be Patrick Peterson, a pick that they won't regret.

8. Tennessee Titans

Even though Nick Fairley seems like a great fit here, the Titans pass. Head coach Mike Munchak knows better than to doom his stint by sinking money and draft picks into unreliable players. Instead, they go with wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones is undervalued; as great as Green was at Georgia, Jones made more plays more consistently. He's not just a possession receiver either.

9. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys could go for . I think Jerry Jones trades down and stumps everyone by taking running back Mark Ingram. Instantly, he solidifies a position that is in disarray. He might just go ahead and take Ingram here. As talented as Felix Jones is, he just might not be the grinder that this offense, explosive but inconsistent, needs.

10. Washington Redskins

The Redskins take offensive tackle Tyron Smith. The biggest problem with this team was not the quarterback play or the black hole at running back. It's a fact that Chris Samuels, a great, under-appreciated player, has never been replaced. On the other hand, the Redskins might take Nick Fairley and just start collecting troubled defensive tackles from the SEC.

NFL: Week Five News

The Patriots Way: New England is 3-1, lifted by great special teams (2 touchdowns, a blocked punt, and a blocked field goal last Monday) and a very diverse group of receivers. But they traded away Randy Moss, who I've always claimed was the closest thing to an "unstoppable" presence in the NFL, for a third- and seventh-round picks. The Patriots Way is part football strategy, part stock market speculation. In this case, Belichick dumped a commodity when its value is overrated, his competitors panic, and the coach sees a long-term/short-term benefit to maximizing other resources.

Impressive Starts: The Jets are also 3-1, and the loss was a one-point game which they might have been able to win had Dustin Keller not made an enormous route-running gaffe. Sanchez has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8-to-0. Though I was skeptical of the team--too loud, not enough roster depth--they have handily dispatched all three of their division rivals. You also have to applaud the Kansas City Chiefs, who patiently built their team through the draft: Glenn Dorsey, Dexter McCluster, Javier Arenas, Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers, and Eric Berry look like a strong core that should be able to compete at a high level for the next decade. Among the .500 pack that might make a run includes the Miami Dolphins and the entire NFC West.

Looking Forward to the 2011 Draft: The Buffalo Bills are in pace for the No. 1 overall spot in the draft. Chan Gailey is overmatched as an NFL head coach, though he has coaxed good performances from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Who might they take? Quarterbacks Ryan Mallett or Terrelle Pryor? Linebacker Greg Jones? Bills fans deserve better than speculating on next year's draft in early October.

NFL Draft Recap: Players Who Will Outperform Players Drafted Ahead of Them

LeBron's out of the playoffs, the MLB season is in its early pages, and , so I decided to make the unlikely decision to post on the NFL Draft, about a month after it took place. I'd prefer to talk about my Hornets landing an elite player at the top of the NBA Draft, but apparently basketball in New Orleans has received another body blow.

Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers

"The Mile-High Messiah"? Try "Tebench." I've seen Tebow in about twenty games, from his first college touchdown pass against the LSU Tigers to his last, against the Cincinnati Bearcats. Forget his drunken footwork or his mediocre foot speed. When he threw the ball, it was rarely a spiral. Not only will the throwing window in the NFL become narrower, but Tebow is going to have to throw a "catchable" pass. The NFL is about precision and fundamentals, and Tebow has neither.

Clausen, on the other hand, was seen as the anti-Tebow. He was an arrogant kid, who arrived in South Bend in a stretch Hummer and announced his ambition to win four Heismans and four national championships. His personality is a big turnoff, and conjures up memories of Ryan Leaf.

But Clausen also has what it takes to win close games, which is all I ask for from a starting NFL quarterback. See 2009 Purdue, see 2009 Michigan State, see a handful of other games in which Charlie Weis's clock management doomed the Fighting Irish. When/if John Fox is fired and Bill Cowher is brought in, Clausen's potential will be a major draw.

Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots

This UF player was dominant last season, the only player that I really feared after Dan Mullins left Gainesville. He was healthier throughout his career than Rob Gronkowski (2nd round, Patriots) or Jermaine Gresham (1st round, Bengals). But after watching Tom Brady eviscerate Benjamin Watson, a former first-round pick at the position, for poor route-running, you wonder how Hernandez, who has a similar problem and ran a lot of screens and short outlet routes during his career, will mesh with Brady.

Charles Brown, New Orleans Saints

Left tackle Charles Brown was another Trojan who came into college football with so much hype that any career short of all-time greatness would be disappointing. Like Joe McKnight and Everson Griffen, Brown became a serviceable, occasionally great, college player who could become a better professional player. Brown blocked for John David Booty, Mark Sanchez, and a freshman, Matt Barkley, during his career, so I'm still not convinced that he was held back by the players around him.

Brown was drafted behind Trent Williams (1st round, Washington Redskins), who has the dubious virtue of being able to play right or left tackle, and Bryan Bulaga (1st round, Green Bay Packers), who is this year's Mystery Meat. Re: Williams, why is being able to play two positions valuable, when one position has so much more value than the other. If Williams is not playing left tackle for the Redskins in five years, he's a bust at number four overall. And, is Bulaga the next Robert Gallery?