BCS National Championship: Texas vs. Alabama

College football fans have been itching for this game for almost a year and a half. Remember last November, when it looked like Alabama and Texas were on an intractable collision course? Then, Oklahoma snuck in on a quirky tie-breaker, and Florida came back in the fourth quarter of the SEC Championship. On Thursday night, we get to see this brawl between #1 Alabama and #2 Texas.

I don't typically like to break down games into match-ups. For instance, usually, a team doesn't win because they have a good secondary and linebacking group. It wins because the secondary and linebackers play well together. Both of these teams have played very disciplined for the first thirteen games, especially Alabama's defense. Suddenly, Alabama is producing dream players for the 3-4 alignment.

The history between the coaches is fascinating, too. Alabama's defensive coordinator Kirby Smart served under Texas's defensive coordinator, before both of them worked on Nick Saban's staff at LSU. The question mark: how successful is Texas's offensive coordinator Greg Davis against that defense. One indicator might be the 2007 Alamo Bowl, in which Texas faced off against Kirk Ferentz's Iowa team. (Ferentz basically runs the same 3-4 scheme as Saban, with less blitzing.) Colt McCoy was shaky in the early going, with two interceptions, but rallied and won 26-24. McCoy had running back Jamaal Charles (he of record-setting Chiefs fame) then, but I think Texas's running back corps is underrated.

Texas might not be the best team in the country, but they couldn't have wished for a more advantageous draw from the contenders. Their version of the spread, with heavy use of flood concepts, is made to attack the zone coverages that Saban and Smart believe in. (A further twist: both teams would be lucky not to give up some big special teams plays.) Alabama has played only one team (two, if you count Florida) in the last two years that has the passing proficiency that Texas has, and they lost. Utah won the Sugar Bowl decisively.

Alabama has never beaten Texas, going 0-7-1 all-time. I'm going with history, Texas beats Alabama, 30-17.