NCAA Tournament First Round

Show Me the Tourney!

At one point in the season, both Ole Miss and Mississippi State were both ranked. Today, though, they’ve begun preparations for the college basketball’s consolation prize. Ole Miss just didn’t do well enough in a mediocre SEC, and the Bulldogs have to be wondering “What if?” What if Renardo Sidney had qualified? What if that scholarship offer had been extended to another player? What if Kentucky had stuck it out another year with Billy Gillispie or failed to land John Calipari (and his star-studded 2009 recruiting class)?

And, of course, they were on the wrong side of two of the finest games in college basketball. On Sunday, Kentucky pulled off another overtime victory to send Mississippi State to the NIT. Twice this season, State should have beaten John Calipari’s squad. Fans of the Bulldogs can take solace in the fact that teams as inexperienced as Kentucky don’t get far in the tournament. (Calipari’s Memphis teams that went to the Final Four were led by two-year and three-year veterans, though they were lifted by super-freshmen Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans.) Also, Calipari’s shortcomings in game management has cost his team a national title before, namely his 2008 National Championship.

This year’s NCAA Tournament should be special. Every year, it seems that my attempt at rationalizing my picks exposes some deep counter-intuitive, or perhaps irrational, trends. (After this column, I’m going to take solace in an article by myth-maker of upstream swimmers and Louisiana native, writer Michael Lewis.) My entire bracket is posted on my blog, the Irregular Season, and these are the highlights.

#8 Texas over #9 Wake Forest: For not entirely explicable reasons, I have Texas going deep in the tournament. Recently, they’ve been blown out by Texas A & M and Baylor, and perhaps the Longhorns shouldn’t even be in the tournament. But I believe in a team that was 17-0, with victories over Michigan State and Pittsburgh. They remind me of Jim Valvano’s 1983 North Carolina State team.

#7 BYU over #10 Florida: Since Florida won back-to-back titles, the program has been slipping. The reasons vary from bad-apple recruits to an improving SEC conference. BYU comes in as a talented, overlooked team and a good pick for this year’s Cinderella. In fact, there’s smart money on BYU going deep in the Tournament, based on statistical trends, though I have them losing in the second round.

#9 Louisville over #8 California: This pick might be prejudiced, since I’ve seen Louisville play often over the last few years. Still, the Cardinals have a misleadingly mediocre record in a premier conference, the Big East, and drew a very favorable matchup, in terms of location. They play the Golden Bears, a West Coast team, in Jacksonville.

#10 Missouri over #7 Clemson: The ACC just hasn’t been very good, and the Big Ten is better than it’s given credit for. Clemson feasted on overrated teams, while Missouri has been well-tested. The winner of this game gets to play West Virginia, coached by talented, troubled Bob Huggins and loaded with talented and troubled players. If WVU goes deep, you can go ahead and cue ESPN’s token “Redemption” feature.

Must-Watch Games in the First Two Rounds

#1 Kentucky versus #16 East Tennessee State is the only 1-16 match-up worth your time, if for no other reason than to see how John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins respond to the tournament’s unique pressures. #7 Oklahoma State versus #10 Georgia Tech is a match-up of mid-tier power-conference teams. The winner of this game has a clear path to the Sweet Sixteen. Could the Ivy League win its first NCAA Tournament game in recent memory when #12 Cornell upsets #5 Temple?

Teams That Could Surprise (and Disappoint): #7 BYU, #12 Utah State, and #4 Purdue have been underestimated and could make a deep run. On the other end of the spectrum, Villanova and Notre Dame are overrated. Saint Mary’s was robbed of a spot in the Tournament last year and could find their way to the Elite Eight, by defeating them both.